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There are a couple of squads in March Madness betting that you may want to avoid. 
There is a big trend that points against some high profile squads in March Madness basketball. Let’s examine a couple of squads you may want to be pretty careful about betting on in the NCAA Tournament.
The Knowledge Element
If a team did not make the NCAA Tournament last year you must really beware about betting on them in this year’s tournament. And yes, there are several high profile squads that are going to fit into this scenario. North Carolina, Connecticut, Arizona, St. John’s, UCLA and Cincinnati all missed the competition last year. And there’s no question that North Carolina and Connecticut are destined to be top four seeds.
History Tells the Story
If we go back to 1985 we find 107 squads that were very seeded that did not play in the year’s earlier competition. Just eight of those squads achieved the Final 4. Just two of those squads won a championship. Let’s compare those squads that were coming into the competition with no knowledge from the past year with those that are skilled. Teams that have made the competition two years back to back or more have significantly better winning percentage than squads that did not make it last year. Since 1985 there have been a total of 214 squads seeded one through 5 that had tournament knowledge and 35 of them made the Final 4. That percentage of squads is twice as high as the one we talked about earlier. 5 of those squads won the championship.
North Carolina and Connecticut The Tar Heels and Huskies are going to get lots of interest from bettors in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll both be a top three seed and almost certainly a top two seed. If you examine the past and find #1 or #2 seeds that did not make the competition the earlier season they did not do well in any way. Of the 23 squads in that scenario only one achieved the Final 4 and won it all. That was Louisville back in 1986. Since then a total of 20 squads that were seeded first or 2nd and did not make the competition the earlier year all failed to reach the Final 4. You may want to wager on North Carolina and Connecticut but history tells you to be pretty careful about the process.
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