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At the beginning of this year’s NCAA tournament, could anyone have predicted this would be the Final Four that we were to get? None of the top seed made it to Houston, while one of the First Four – actually meaning one of the last four chosen for the tournament at all – has made it. It would be an unexpected if just one bracket throughout the nation was still intact after this last weekend.
Who could have predicted that one of the national semifinals games would be played between the Butler Bulldogs and the VCU Rams? Handful of enough people anticipated Butler to make it back into the Sweet Sixteen, not to mention the Final Four. And no one actually anticipated VCU to make their incredible run in the tournament, defeating out No. 1 seed Kansas on the way.
So is this year just chance, or is the era of being able to guess relatively correct national championships arriving to an end? In essence, the smaller schools are attracting quality participants, and those participants stick around for longer than the minimum amount of time required to make a name for themselves before declaring for pro basketball Draft.
Programs like Butler and VCU can attract quality participants, even if they do not get the pretty best high school participants in the nation. The major names like Kansas and Ohio State can acquire the best of the best, but then those participants simply stay in ncaa for a year or two at the most. In the meantime, the smaller schools take advantage and create their participants for 3-4 years.
So the upsets we are seeing this year aren’t flukes. They reflect the changing perception of the importance of playing ncaa ball. None of the top seeds lasted long enough to make it to Houston’s semifinal round. Duke is gone, Kansas is gone, the widely liked Ohio State is gone. Butler, VUC, Kentucky, and Uconn make up simply the third Final Four devoid of a No. 1 seed since 1979.
The major conferences were embarrassed from the tournament this year. The Big East and Big Ten got a combined 18 bids this year, and just one team made it even as far as the Elite 8 – Connecticut. Look for the smaller conferences and smaller programs to start gaining more tournament bids in the future. And watch for them to keep winning provided that the “elite” schools recruit expertise at the expense of consistency.
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